Study: No ICE Autos In Eight Years

This car is systematic, hyyydromatic...why it's greased lightning!
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Err
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Study: No ICE Autos In Eight Years

Post by Err »

I haven't read the actual study but 8 years is a pipe dream. The biggest hurdle is infrastructure for charging and automation. If I decide to buy an electric car, I'll need to hire an electrician to wire the charger in the garage. What if I lived in an apartment? Assuming that I still needed a car, where am I going to charge the thing? We also don't have the electrical grid in the US yet and will have to make a major investment in solar and nuclear so we're not running our electric cars on natural gas and coal. Automation is even further off. I don't believe we'll have reliable autonomous vehicles until we put sensors into the roads. GPS can be off by several yards and can hit dead spots. Insurance on autonomous is also a debate. Who is liable when an autonomous car crashes? It shouldn't be the occupants and the manufacturer must be responsible. I don't think autonomous car owners should have to pay any insurance. At that point it's no different than riding in a limo or taxi.

https://www.motor1.com/news/146191/study-no-ice-cars/
It’s no secret that the transportation sector needs a change. A big change. In order to meet the new strict global emission goals set by world leaders in 2015 (read: to save our planet), we need to stop using internal combustion engine cars by 2035. Taking into consideration electric vehicles account for one to two percent on the different markets, this sounds like a pretty ambitious plan.

But Stanford University economist Tony Seba believes things are much brighter than we think. His new report “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030” claims that no more petrol or diesel car, buses, and trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within only eight years.

Well, that’s quite a bold statement. “We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” Seba says. That’s true, but is it going to happen that fast?

The turning point for the industry, according to the study, will arrive in only two or three years as batteries for electric vehicles get better. Seba sees 200 miles (322 kilometers) at a single charge and $30,000 price for an EV as numbers we will start seeing before the end of the decade.

“What the cost curve says is that by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally.”

According to the specialist, only nostalgic people will hold on to the old habit of car ownership. Most of the customers will adapt to a new way of transportation with vehicles in demand. Dealerships will disappear by 2024.

According to the study, the cost per mile for EVs will drop to only 6.8 cents, while insurance costs will fall by 90 percent thanks to autonomous technologies. More than 95 percent of the miles driven in the United States by 2030 will be in autonomous EVs. Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million by 2030.

Hit the two source links below for further details from the study.
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wvjohn
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Re: Study: No ICE Autos In Eight Years

Post by wvjohn »

I am all in favor of getting away from fossil fuels, but so much of this stuff seems to be a silicon valley pipe dream. Self driving, autonomous, or whatever may be viable for some folks in urban areas. Middle class + and up. There is no infrastructure to support this kind of a switch over, and the power companies are kicking and screaming as solar keeps getting added in because the whole grid is seriously antiquated, and nobody is spending the money to upgrade it. I saw an article on replacing semis about of the port of Long Beach CA with electrics for the trip to the inland port/bonded area - about 30 miles I recall. With current battery tech (which will improve) it would take all the electricity generated in CA to power this one operation. I know all of this stuff is very layered and complicated, but so much of what I see focuses on "Hyperloop" stuff instead of proven solutions like rail.
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Err
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Re: Study: No ICE Autos In Eight Years

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wvjohn wrote: I know all of this stuff is very layered and complicated, but so much of what I see focuses on "Hyperloop" stuff instead of proven solutions like rail.
A friend and I were discussing this the other day. Why isn't rail fully automated? I also don't get why we don't have a dedicated high speed rail system for goods delivery.
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Re: Study: No ICE Autos In Eight Years

Post by Pugsley »

One reasons is unions. They railroads have wanted to get rid of the conductor for years on long distance freights. But the unions keep pushing back. PTC (Positive Train Control) is not ready yet and is still full of bugs. Plus with nobody on board you cant respond to all problems in a timely manner and locomotives have tons of issues all the time due to poor maintenance/computer problems.
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